Q: This is a performance-based project. The facility specializes in producing HDPE pipelines, and we have undertaken a project aimed at reducing energy consumption by implementing an Energy Management System. For this initiative, we have selected option B as the baseline. Our baseline model was developed using 18 data points, which consist of monthly energy consumption data from the city supplier and production figures.

Over the past four months, monthly production has decreased significantly, reaching its lowest point. The most recent energy bill came in below the "b" (base load) value established in the baseline model. As a result, our client is requesting a review of the baseline due to the sustained low production rates expected to persist for the next 2 to 3 months. We have clarified to the client that the stationary factors (such as machinery, electricity supply, product types, raw materials, etc.) have remained unchanged, and the monthly production variations are already accounted for in the existing baseline model.

I have enclosed the raw data utilized for determining the baseline, the adjusted baseline energy, production data for the reporting period, and the measured energy for the same period. Could you kindly assess the situation and provide us with your insights?

A: The production figures have been lower as stated but just dipping below baseline data set for the last month as shown – which is the subject of the question. For that month, the measured energy consumption has gone below the energy base value in the regression but again the production level for that month was just slightly below the baseline production levels (202k kg vs 211k kg). This lowered production level being experienced seems to be projected to go back up after a few months. is that the Based on this situation, the existing baseline model is thought to still be valid at those lower production levels and the fact that the actual measured energy use is lower than the baseline base load could very well be to the ECM implemented for the controls/energy mgt system. Looking at the previous month where production levels were even lower, the measured load was actually greater than the base load (b) and the calculation shows zero savings – therefore this seems to be fair. Based on this analysis and the fact that you stated the static factors have not changed, it is believed that the original baseline model is still valid.