Savings Bifurcation for EPCS

When we do the detailed facility study as per ASHRAE Level 2 and Level 3 audit, we will calculate the guaranteed savings over the year. But when the EPC is implemented, we need to track the savings to understand if the ESM is performing well or poorly. How will the savings be bifurcated on a monthly basis? When we use it by CDD, then more savings will be in the summer months. For control ESMs, it will usually be the opposite case, where we will have more savings in winter because of better control; in summer the control will be somewhat minimal due to extreme weather conditions, and the chance of optimization will also be minimal. Let’s say we don’t have any previous projects in these areas too (if we had, we could use the average values there), and also simulation is not possible. The attached is a sample representation of an Excel sheet. The proposed M&V option was Option B, where we found out that the only dependent variable is CDD.